Navigating Resilience and Opportunity: A Wealth Management Perspective on 2025 and What Lies Ahead for 2026

Prepared by Jennifer Mason, Chief Wealth Management Officer

A Year That Tested – and Proved – Resilience

As we reflect on 2025, one word stands out: resilience.

Despite persistent headlines around inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty, the global economy continued to move forward. Growth held steady, consumers remained engaged, and innovation, particularly around artificial intelligence, helped offset areas of pressure. While the environment was far from smooth, it rewarded patience, discipline, and long-term perspective.

This review looks back at what shaped markets in 2025 and outlines what we believe matters most as we move into 2026.

Key Takeaways at a Glance

• Global growth remained near ~3.0%¹, while U.S. growth was roughly ~2.0%², reflecting steady demand but a cooling labor backdrop.

• Inflation eased, though progress slowed as tariff-related costs filtered through supply chains³.

• Tariffs became a structural feature, reshaping sourcing decisions and corporate margins rather than acting as a temporary shock⁴.

• Looking ahead to 2026, expectations center on modest expansion, gradual interest-rate easing, and continued opportunity, paired with select risks.

2025 in Review: What Shaped the Markets

Global Growth: Steady, Not Spectacular

Global economic growth held near ~3.0% in 2025, supported by resilient consumer spending and continued investment tied to artificial intelligence and automation. Trade frictions remained a headwind, but they did not derail expansion. Instead, companies adapted, rethinking supply chains and cost structures to maintain momentum.

U.S. Growth: Cooling, but Constructive

The U.S. economy grew at approximately ~2.0% in 2025. While labor markets softened later in the year, consumer activity remained durable. One notable trend was the widening gap between large companies and small businesses, with smaller firms feeling more pressure from higher costs and tighter financing conditions.

Inflation: Progress, With Friction

Inflation moved lower through the year, but not in a straight line. Mid-year tariff pass-through slowed the pace of disinflation, reinforcing what many investors experienced firsthand, progress, but with bumps along the way. The base case remained “sticky disinflation,” where prices moderate gradually rather than quickly reverting to pre-pandemic norms.

Tariffs: The New Normal

By the end of 2025, tariffs were no longer viewed as temporary policy tools. They became embedded in corporate planning, affecting margins, sourcing decisions, and pricing strategies. Trade considerations increasingly moved from back-office functions into boardroom discussions, especially for industries with high import exposure.

Economic Trends at a Glance

The charts below provide a visual snapshot of the economic forces that shaped 2025 and are influencing expectations for the year ahead. They highlight how growth, inflation, and trade dynamics have evolved over time, offering important context as you think about where the economy has been and where it may be headed next. As you review them, focus less on short-term fluctuations and more on the broader trends that continue to guide long-term planning and investment decisions.

GDP Growth Trend (2024–2026)

Notes: 2025 shown as actual/near-final estimates; 2026 baseline projections. Sources: IMF update (Jul 30, 2025); Citi Research (Dec 8, 2025); Morgan Stanley (Nov 19, 2025).

Inflation Trend: Global vs. U.S. (2024–2026)

Notes: Global inflation moderates; U.S. disinflation sticky; 2026 baseline assumes tariff pass-through fades mid-year. Sources: IMF update (Jul 30, 2025); Bank of America (Dec 6, 2025); ING (Dec 4, 2025).

Sectoral Tariff Impact Heatmap (2026)

Notes: Qualitative impact scoring based on import dependency, supply-chain exposure, and pass-through ability. Sources: Investopedia Tariff Summary (Dec 2, 2025); Thomson Reuters 2026 Global Trade Report; NRF Global Port Tracker (Dec 8, 2025).

Looking Ahead: 2026 Outlook & Strategy Implications

Growth Expectations

Baseline expectations for 2026 point to global growth near ~3.1%⁵ and U.S. growth around ~2.1%⁵. Upside scenarios include productivity gains tied to AI adoption or easing trade pressures. On the downside, renewed trade escalation or overextended valuations in certain technology segments could introduce volatility.

Interest Rates

Monetary policy is expected to gradually normalize. The Federal Reserve is projected to ease toward a ~3.0–3.25% policy rate⁶, while European rates remain largely steady. Emerging markets are expected to continue measured easing as inflation pressures subside.

Portfolio Positioning Considerations

As we look ahead, we believe a disciplined approach remains essential⁷:

• Emphasize quality companies with strong pricing power

• Incorporate tariff-aware positioning, including domestic production and automation trends

• Maintain global diversification and thoughtful scenario hedging

These principles are designed to help portfolios remain resilient across a range of economic outcomes, not just the base case.

Staying Focused on What Matters Most

Periods like this remind us why long-term planning matters. Markets will always cycle, headlines will always change, and uncertainty will never fully disappear. What helps investors navigate these environments is a clear strategy, realistic expectations, and guidance rooted in experience.

As we move into 2026, our focus remains the same: providing steady perspective, sound advice, and thoughtful strategies designed to support your long-term goals.

If you’d like to discuss how these trends may affect your investment or retirement strategy, we invite you to connect with our Wealth Management team or schedule a conversation to review your goals and next steps.

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Sources

¹Sources: IMF update (Jul 30, 2025); Citi Research.

²Morgan Stanley Research; Oxford Economics.

³IMF; Bank of America commentary.

⁴Investopedia tariff summary; Thomson Reuters 2026 Global Trade Report; NRF Global Port Tracker.

⁵Citi; Morgan Stanley.

⁶Goldman Sachs; iShares; ING.

⁷Oxford Economics; J.P. Morgan.